TLDR
- A major whale offloaded $6.52M worth of PEPE with a cost basis of $0.00000832, securing a 32% profit
- PEPE is testing critical support at $0.000010, with a breakdown potentially triggering more whale exits
- Network Realized Profit/Loss metric shows holders are realizing losses, dropping from 189,150 to -50.21 million
- Supply on exchanges increased from 103.55 trillion to 104.12 trillion, suggesting increased selling pressure
- Technical indicators show bearish momentum with RSI at 40 and pointing downward
PEPE (PEPE) price is facing a critical juncture as it tests major support levels while on-chain data shows early signs of whale distribution. The meme coin, which saw a 36% rally last month after dropping to $0.000007, now sits 57% from its recent peak as momentum appears to be fading.
The current price action shows PEPE leaning on a fragile support zone at $0.000010, which has previously sparked solid dip-buying on two occasions. However, the bounce from this level has not been convincing, raising concerns about potential further downside.
With 87% of PEPE’s supply held by the top 1% of addresses, whale behavior becomes crucial for price direction. These large holders are currently sitting on healthy unrealized profits, which may motivate them to start taking profits as momentum stalls.
On-chain data has already captured one such move. According to SpotOnChain, a whale recently deposited 595.2 billion PEPE worth $6.52 million into Binance. This whale secured a $1.57 million profit, representing a 32% gain after riding the last accumulation cycle.
The whale’s cost basis at $0.00000832 is particularly telling. It suggests that short-term whale investors may be rotating out as price momentum stalls near local range highs. This isn’t random profit-taking but appears calculated, coming right as PEPE struggles to reclaim higher levels.
Technical Analysis Points to Weakness
PEPE broke below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $0.0000114 last Thursday and has declined by nearly 9% since then. The price is now approaching an ascending trendline that connects multiple lows since early April, coinciding with daily support at $0.0000103.
A daily close below this level would likely signal a correction ahead. If PEPE breaks below the ascending trendline and closes below $0.0000103, it could extend the decline by approximately 15% to retest the next daily support at $0.0000088.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 40 and points downward, indicating increasing bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displayed a bearish crossover last week and shows red histogram bars below its neutral level.
On-Chain Metrics Show Waning Confidence
Santiment’s Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) metric shows a concerning trend. The indicator decreased dramatically from 189,150 to -50.21 million between Sunday and Monday. This negative drop indicates that PEPE holders are, on average, realizing losses, which signals waning investor confidence.
During the same period, PEPE’s supply on exchanges rose from 103.55 trillion to 104.12 trillion. This increase indicates that holders are moving tokens to exchanges, which typically precedes increased selling activity.
What’s worth noting is that the whale position mentioned earlier isn’t fully closed. Approximately 104.4 billion PEPE worth $1.15 million remains in another wallet, holding $320,000 in unrealized gains. This puts further pressure on PEPE’s critical $0.000010 support level.
The coming trading sessions are pivotal for PEPE’s price action. A confirmed lower low below the current support level could trigger more whale rotation, not necessarily out of panic, but to preserve tightening profit margins before a potential larger correction.
PEPE’s price currently sits at $0.0000103 as of Tuesday, June 17, 2025.
